Justin W. 5:23 PM
BLX Index Weekly Analysis (TradingView Idea)
-No significant break of resistance.
-Decreasing volume indicative of consolidation.
-Initial rejection from trend line resistance.
-Proximity to critical horizontal resistance.
-Initial rejection from Weekly 200 EMA.
-Top of the High Volume Node consolidation range.
Congruent to what I've been saying, Bitcoin is no longer in an area where I am an interested buyer. The setup that has proved most profitable over the last year has been to short areas of alignment like this.
Potential Areas of Support:
-Weekly 8 EMA (3780)
-Weekly Point of Control (3616)
These would represent areas where one would look to take profits on a short position, or pyramid into a larger one should those levels not reverse the market convincingly back to the upside.
However, I do want to be logically consistent in my analysis. There is always potential for a breakout. I spoke at length prior to the push off of 3400 that it was a higher time frame level of potential support. However, I also believe that level did not contain enough liquidity to propel Bitcoin out of it's trading range. Liquidity can always come in at the top of a trading range, however with the reality that Bitcoin has been in a bear market for such a long time, it will truly take serious convincing market behavior to entice my capital into a long position.
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap Weekly Analysis (TradingView Idea)
-Initial rejection from primary weekly resistance.
-Rejection from upper boundary of current Volume Profile.
-Rejection from Weekly 200 EMA.
-No significant spikes in volume to indicate a potential breakout.
-That is indicative of little "new money" entering into the crypto markets.
Levels of Support:
-Weekly 8 EMA
-Weekly Point of Control
The first and third options there are identical. Should those levels not hold, I would expect a return to the bottom of the range.
BTCUSD Longs vs. Shorts Weekly Analysis (TradingView Idea)
-Massive drop in open interest over this past week.
-This clearly shows, especially when cross-references with Bull/Bear Income, that traders who held Long positions in profit have now largely taken that money off of the table.
-This also shows that traders are afraid to short the market top, indicative of underwater shorts closing out of their positions.
-This is also indicative of longer-term shorts closing their long-held positions due to a fear of Bitcoin breaking out of it's trading range to the upside.
-I feel based off of this that Shorts are most likely undervalued at this point in time, and therefore, based on the technical analysis of TOTAL and BLX, that the best potential is in a short position until such time as the market invalidates this concept by breaking out.
ETH/USD Longs vs. Shorts Weekly Analysis (TradingView Idea)
-This is a fairly straight-forward chart.
-Longs on ETH are irrationally still very high near the top of a trading range, while longer-term shorts positions have begun closing their positions.
-The market does not like to reward retail speculation.
-I believe based off of this that much more dynamically, ETH Shorts are highly undervalued, making a positional ETH short my primary objective moving forward.
-The market would need to break out to invalidate this analysis, rewarding mass speculation, which is a very rare occurrence.
BTC1! CME Futures Daily Analysis (TradingView Idea)
-Proximity to weekly resistance.
-Proximity to upper boundary of Volume Profile.
-Breakage and current holding of daily 55 EMA.
-Overbought conditions on Time Transformation, no confirmed sell signal.
Mixed signals on CME Futures for Bitcoin. All aspects seem to agree with a bearish analysis, the only positive aspect is the EMA's. I believe we can alleviate this by understanding that CME contains very incomplete historical data for parsing an accurate moving average. On every other chart with more historical data we see our EMA's acting as resistance instead. So while we cannot discount that traders would look at that as a bullish sign of holding higher support, we do have to filter that through the lens of more complete market data.