Thoughts on BTC:
Here is the big picture for Bitcoin at the moment. After a nice bullish rally that lasted a little over a week, Bitcoin is consolidating around the 50-60% area of it’s bullish impulse. If we compare Bitcoin’s push here to it’s previous high, all we have been able to do is form a lower high. We can now plot a descending trend line on the daily chart connecting the last bullish impulse upwards to our latest run up. We now have a metric to gauage further bullishness. So from a swing perspective, we have lower lows, and lower highs. Not the most bullish setup in the world. This creates a descending channel for us to trade in for the moment, until the range breaks.
The argument for the bulls: The Inverted Head and Shoulders can still form, this will likely take just as much time to form as did the left shoulder and the head. To wit: a week at least. Referring to the above chart, I still have us in a potential buy zone from 3780 – 3720, with a stop loss at 3670. Breaking this area, our next potential entry would be 3490 – 3540 with a stop loss at 3435. This would be a likelier area for the right shoulder to form. However, UNTIL I see a right shoulder form and we get confirmation of a bullish impulse movement from that right shoulder, I won’t be looking to take that trade.
I’m going to take everything I said in the above paragraph into account, but overall I’m going to be looking for opportunities to sell in the market right now. The Fisher Transform has not crossed below the zero line yet, so I am still expecting a bounce from these areas, if only to give me a better area to short from. I’m going to be patient, and wait. The trades on the table are the speculative long entry in this buy zone (risky), the short of the breakdown below 3670 (medium risk), or the short