Crypto Market Update June 28, 2024

June 28, 2024
@Justin Wise
Lead Technical Analyst, Co-Founder

Bitcoin 12 Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a range between $60,600 - $62,450. The previous three Daily Candles have been Inside Bar candles, confirming this consolidation.

Over the last four hours, sellers have stepped in with more strength then they have over the last three days. We are trading dangerously close to the bottom of this consolidation range we've established, and this renewed strength makes it likely that we will push down for another test of buyer's conviction between $58,000 - $60,000.

Time Transformation will confirm a Bearish Crossunder on this 12HR closure, unless buyers step in with strength over the next eight hours.

When this signal does not occur on a large candle, this has led to at least two more bearish 12-hour candles in 11 out of the 12 previous occurrences.

Bitcoin 1H Chart Analysis

The 1HR Volume Profile gives us insight to where liquidity rests in the market, and where buyers are likely to step in upon such a bearish re-test of our current support.

We see Low-Volume Nodes in two ranges below us,

  1. $60,360 - $60,600
  2. $59,350 - $59,800

If price is indeed going to test those levels, I would first expect price to find support here at the range bottom, re-visit $61,100 - and then reverse and make the push down first to the first range, and then potentially to the second.

Confirmation of this prediction will come if Bitcoin is unable to re-claim $61,300 on it's next rally.

Bitcoin Footprint Chart

The Footprint chart confirms this analysis. We can see that the last Aggressive Bid Imbalance was just swept on this current push down to range support.

Market shorting at support is a fool's game, it's successful every once in a rare while when bearish momentum is extremely strong, but statistically it is an overwhelming poor entry strategy. (80%+ chance of failure)

We can see a Long Liquidation Cluster aligning with my first Low-Volume Node target, and the last Aggressive Bid Imbalance since the $59k low confirming my second.

I've high-lighted two purple zones above current price where, should we indeed be headed lower, this bounce from support will likely find resistance.

Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

As I accurately predicted yesterday, max pain was to the downside. When I posted yesterday's Crypto Market Update I called for the Long Liquidations to get swept before any significant movement upwards. That is exactly what happened.

I can see a bump of Short Liquidations coming in at about $61,144 - this will be a key target for a short-term rally and an important level to clear if the bulls really are going to assert control over this market.