Crypto Market Update June 20, 2024

June 20, 2024
@Justin Wise
Lead Technical Analyst, Co-Founder

Wall Street is back with a bang Ladies & Gentlemen! As I spoke about yesterday, Juneteenth was a Federal Bank Holiday where the big boys were not in play but they are BACK today. And boy, are they back.

As we can see from the 1H Chart - APAC and EUMA were buyers last night and early this morning, pushing price up to the Hourly 200 EMA, where price found resistance for the fourth consecutive time.

Bitcoin Technical Chart

Currently, as we are one hour into the American Session, traders have sold Bitcoin aggressively down to our current level of support at $64.5k.

As stated over the last two days, I expect a sweep of liquidity below this range before a potential more powerful reversal to the upside. Thursdays have been good days for market reversals in Bitcoin markets, where we see a high liquidity movement culminating in the end of the current dominant trend, which so far has been bearish.

As we can see from the Liquidation Heatmap however, most Long Liquidity was just cleared out on this aggressive move, so perhaps things won't be as drastic as I've outlined and $64.5k will end up being the local bottom, showcasing a nice double bottom stretching two days.  

Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

As stated, $67k is the easiest short-term target, with my ultimate target for this move being $67.8k. That is where I will close my current Leveraged Long Position, and re-evaluate.

As we can see in the chart below, two Large Limit Orders were just filled at price points of $65k ($2M) and $64.8k ($584k). There were two smaller Large Limit Orders filled at slightly higher price points. As we've seen time and time again, once these Large Limit Orders get filled, price often moves aggressively away from their entry price.

Bitcoin Large Limit Orders

However, the Large Limit Order I've consistently talked about this week is now sitting at $64,480, for an aggregate value of approximately $7M. This is consistent with the rest of the Long Liquidations below our daily low and yesterday's daily open, and if we are to see a very aggressive movement upwards, it's likely we'll have to clear that order and that liquidity as well.

From the Footprint Chart, we can see the aggressive selling that came in at $65.9 - $65.6 - and $65.3k. For scalpers, those will serve as short-term targets. Notice the large Bid Imbalance below the current low at $64.5k.

Bitcoin Footprint Chart

All of this to suggest that should there be another drive down, sellers are targeting the range between $64.5k and $64.2k. Should we see price bottom there, and begin to move up positively today - and most important if we can close a strong Daily Candle upwards, then the idea of a more pronounced recovery (potential long swing trade) is on the table.

If, however, these levels of support are unable to hold, we are going to be headed significantly lower, as volatility has compressed significantly in this range and a large movement is coming up.

Stay safe, and don't get scared by volatility this morning.