Justin W. 4:07 PM
BTC/USDT Daily Analysis (TradingView Idea)
Not a strong position to take at the moment.
Price is simply consolidating at our current supportive HVN which also acted as our second profit taking target on the way down. We are underneath the Value Area of the Volume Profile, this boundary between Value Area and non-VA can serve us as support and resistance. The main factor I am keeping my eye on is the gap on GBTC and CME Futures. Although we did wick up to the zone I had charted out in my CME Chart, it's unclear to me if that area has been sufficiently filled. If we break to the upside I would most likely want to reduce or close my short position in a good profit. I'm currently considering hedging with an XBT Futures long because I do think it a likely scenario that we do start a march upwards of a few days. Ultimately, the likeliset scenario is that that rally fails as trapped buyers will sell at break even as we approach the previous swing high.
Levels of interest are denoted on the chart by yellow dashed lines. Those will represent profit taking targets for a long position, and also areas I would like to be short from **should** price react negatively from those levels. Reactionary trading is necessary for right now, we must simply move with the market and be aware of what direction it's moving in.
Although the higher time frames still represent a bearish Heikin Ashi trend, the lower time frames do show more short-term demand rather then supply. We are being supressed by a significant sell wall above 3,800. Should that sell wall be pulled I think we're likely to see price appreciation in the short-term.
Clearly holding onto our short is intelligent at this point in time, as it is the likeliest scenario, but I will be looking to hedge with an XBTM19 long now.
XBT/USD LTF Analysis
In this ranging period of consolidation, we do see more strength to the demand side of the equilibrium. Higher lows, relatively equal highs. Forming an ascending triangle pattern, which has on it's face, a good chance to break to the upside. We are looking for stair stepping on the lower time frames to verify a breakout, or a strong candle body close on high volume above the resistance level. Be very cautious trying to buy into any range highs here though gentlemen, the actual breakout or breakdown only occurs once and is preceded by many opportunities to buy into a local top or sell into a local low.
The tighter price contracts, the more violent we expect the expansion to be.
The reason why I prefer to be hedged at the moment, is because although the current formation is ascending, showing slight strength to the bulls, generally after a violent dump like the one we experienced on Sunday is followed by consolidation, and then continuation of the dump, often almost as violently. For that reason, I remain prepared for either outcome.
ETH/USD BitMEX Analysis (TradingView Idea)
-The levels of 142-144 represent areas to place limit sell orders.
-The level of 147.62 represents the invalidation zone for short positions. Should price close above this level convincingly, I believe we will see higher highs.
-Downside targets remain 128.50 and 123.50.
-From the entry, you can also re-target 137.50.
-Price closing below 118 is a call to pyramid into another short order, because we will be re-testing the bottom of the range.