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It's something we're all familiar with. Either you're making dinner or needing hot water for making a cup of your favorite caffeinated beverage. The feeling of standing there, impatiently tapping your toe, waiting for the water to boil. C'mon water, don't you know I've got things to do? Doug Polk just posted a new video about "HOt! CH3aP alTS!", the baby's crying, and I need my gol' darned cup of Joe!
The water patiently listens to your indignant protestations, and smugly sits flat as a pancake, while silently willing to itself to become denser so as to delay your boiling needs a little longer. Sometimes, the price action of an asset that you're heavily invested in can feel like waiting for the water to boil. C'mon Bitcoin, let's go! Back up to 20k! Moon, Moon! Do tricks! Sit! Fetch!
Unfortunately, just as the boiling pot of water won't listen to you or acquesiesce to your demands, neither will the spot price of Bitcoin. No matter how badly you need that Lambo by Thursday, or how badly you're emotions are swirling from the significant correction we've faced over the past month, price action is going to do what it's going to do. Cryptos have this particular trait to them in my experience, the "hurry up and wait" syndrome. Price action goes explosive!!! (boom pow!) or implosive (omg to the Mariana Trench!) in a matter of days or even hours. Then flat-line. Beep....beep....beep.
Generally when you see sideways action in Crypto, it's accumulation by whales running bots on exchanges. You can spot it if you know what you're looking for. Large buy and sell walls that appear and disappear, multiple buys of roughly the same small amount repeated many times, not enough to jack up the price but enough to steadily increase volume. Sell walls meant to stagger the price down so the bots can stay in the accumulation zone, until eventually the volume increase can easily mow through that sell wall faster then a Ducati on ice.
Bitcoin is suffering from this now, that we've recovered from the gut-wrenching <$6k levels. Hurry up and wait guys. But wait...a fractal pattern! Jeepers Batman, to the Moon Mobile!
This first chart shows the overall hurry up and wait syndrome as expressed on the daily chart. We are still struggling to straddle that 200 Day Simple Moving Average, while also trying desperately to stay on the support side of the falling wedge formation, not to fall back into the resistance zone. Volume is still very low historically, 24 Hour Volume of only $5,855,000,000 USD. This is low, I need to see double digit volume for a large movement. We also see a bearish crossover of the 50 day and 100 day Moving Average, not a wonderful sign but it can be counteracted by price movement. I did not chart the Elliott Waves, but if we're seeing a Five Count downward, then we could see one more lower low actually, if we have moved from a Bullish Market to a Bearish market. In that case, Elliott Waves can impulse downwards in a five count, with a three count positive correction following. I hope that is not the case (I gots Bitcoin :)) however as in all things, we must hurry up and wait.
The Four Hour chart shows a much more bullish scenario in the short-term. That's right folks, you heard it here first, an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern! This formation is found by seeing a lower low, followed by a lower low, followed by a higher low then the preceeding two. This tell us that after a down-trend support was found at a higher level then the two previous significant dips, which can signify that selling pressure has receeded tremendously, and that buying pressure has pushed the price up considerably, foreshadowing a wave of bullish movement as buying dominates over selling for a time.
For making use of this formation for price prediction, we measure the total distance from the bottom of the neck to the neck-line, the top resistance levels of the two shoulders, and measure that same distance upwards from the neck-line. Doing so gives us a mid-term range of $12,000. This puts us safely past the next two major levels of resistance, which I expect to be cracked like an egg if Bitcoin shows large volume bullish movement at this time.
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